A Melbourne winter night outside: 8C at 80% relative humidity. Indoors heated to 20C.
Moisture generation from the research: 1.5 to 2 litres a day per occupant, plus 1.5 litres per hour of unflued gas heating, plus 2 litres per washing load dried indoors, plus 0.3 litres per shower taken without working extraction.
Air volume is your floor area at a 2.4m ceiling. Background air change rates assumed: 0.7 per hour with single glazed timber windows, 0.5 with single glazed aluminium, 0.35 with double glazing, plus 0.15 where the ceiling has no insulation and leaks through downlights.
Extraction is credited only when the fan discharges outside the building. AS 1668.2 and the NCC set the minimums: bathroom 25 L/s, kitchen 40 L/s, laundry 20 L/s. A fan discharging into the roof space is credited at zero, because the moisture returns through the ceiling.
Surface temperatures come from standard building physics: surface temperature equals indoor temperature minus U value times internal surface resistance times the temperature difference. Frame U values used are 10.0 for single glazed aluminium, 7.5 for single glazed timber and 3.0 for double glazing. That puts a single glazed aluminium frame at about 4C on a July night, which matches what people measure.
Dew point uses the Magnus formula. Mould germinates where the relative humidity at the surface stays above 80%, which happens well before you see liquid water.
Costs are indicative Melbourne ranges for 2026, not a quote. Ducting, glazing and heater work is done by the relevant trade, not by a painter.
This is a screening tool. It does not replace a data logger, a thermal camera or a building inspection.